AFL ROUND 10 PREVIEW, TIPS AND ODDS

AFL Round 10

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The AFL’s 20-day frenzy of footy rolls into its second round, with short turnarounds and high attrition rates further complicating a furious race for finals spots.

High-flying Port Adelaide Power, Brisbane Lions, St Kilda Saints and Richmond Tigers are aiming to back up their big round 9 wins and put more space between themselves and the mid-table logjam. Meanwhile, the likes of Western Bulldogs, Essendon Bombers, Collingwood Magpies and Melbourne Demons are under the pump to turn things around this week.

Carlton Blues, Hawthorn Hawks, Fremantle Dockers and West Coast Eagles all get a bye, but there are still seven intriguing match-ups on the AFL round 10 preview docket – and we’ve got a detailed breakdown and AFL round 10 tips for each clash.

 

PORT ADELAIDE POWER V WESTERN BULLDOGS: AFL ROUND 10 PREDICTION

MONDAY 3 AUGUST – 7:10PM

AFL frontrunner Port Adelaide responded to their disappointing round 8 loss to St Kilda with a 43-point thrashing of in-form Melbourne on Thursday.

Travis Boak (25 disposals, 9 score involvements) led the way for the Power, while newcomer Mitch Georgiades booted three goals. Port’s relentless pressure was a stand-out feature of a real statement performance.

Western Bulldogs remain in the top eight despite a disappointing 41-point loss to Richmond in Wednesday night’s round 9 opener. The tardy Bulldogs were already down by seven goals at half-time but put up a decent fight in the last two quarters of what was just their second defeat in seven games. Jack Macrae was a rare shining light, while Mitch Wallis kicked three goals for the second time in three games.

The Bulldogs ended a three-match losing run against the Power with a 25-point victory in round 15 last year. Accuracy proved the difference as the Bulldogs prevailed 10.6 (66) to 5.11 (41), with Jack Macrae (36 disposals, 1 goal) playing a starring role.

The Bulldogs are yet to put in poor back-to-back performances since the AFL’s restart, but there were worrying signs in the loss to the Tigers. Josh Dunkley returns after a six-game absence, while a hamstring injury has ruled Matt Suckling out.

The Power, who have named Boyd Woodcock to debut, look a cut above at present and should be too strong at Adelaide Oval.

AFL round 10 footy tips

Head-to-head: Port Adelaide Power

Best bet: Line – Port Adelaide Power -12.5

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RICHMOND TIGERS V BRISBANE LIONS: AFL ROUND 10 PREDICTION

TUESDAY 4 AUGUST – 7:10PM

The marquee clash of the AFL round 10 preview.

Brisbane Lions have risen to ‘AFL contender’ status, and are aiming to parlay this form into a victory that would signal the end of an 11-year hoodoo. The Lions are on a 14-match losing streak against the Tigers, last beating the yellow-and-blacks in 2009.

Each of Richmond’s wins during a decade-plus of domination came by margins of 19 points or more, while seven of the last 11 were by 42 or more. The Tigers demolished the Lions 18.4 (112) to 8.17 (65) in their 2019 qualifying final clash, with Dustin Martin going off for six goals.

But the patchy premiers have won four of their last five and are coming off arguably their best display of 2020, thumping the Bulldogs 13.12 (90) to 7.7 (49) on Wednesday. Martin (26 disposals, 3 goals) was in scintillating touch, while captain Trent Cotchin made a sound return from injury.

It’s a result the Tigers – now fifth on the AFL ladder – can use as a platform for their title defence.

The 7–2 Lions sit second and have won three in a row. After gritty victories over GWS and Melbourne, they flexed their muscle with a 14.7 (91) to 3.10 (28) beat-down of Essendon on Friday. Brownlow favourite Lachie Neale (33 disposals, 2 goals) was sensational once again and Coleman Medal contender Charlie Cameron kicked four goals.

A tight four-day turnaround could turn AFL round 10 tips against the Lions here, with the Tigers benefitting from an extra two days’ rest.

AFL round 10 footy tips

Head-to-head: Richmond Tigers

Best bet: Head-to-head – Richmond Tigers

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GEELONG CATS V NORTH MELBOURNE KANGAROOS: AFL ROUND 10 PREDICTION

WEDNESDAY 5 AUGUST – 5:40PM

Sixth-placed Geelong have lost two of their last three, bookending a win over lowly Fremantle with losses to fellow title hopefuls Collingwood and West Coast.

The Cats won’t be overly concerned about the quality of their performance in a nine-point loss to the Eagles, but it was a lost opportunity, given they got out to an early lead and failed to capitalise on ample final-quarter chances inside 50. Cameron Guthrie and Patrick Dangerfield were among the 5–4 Cats’ best.

North Melbourne snapped a six-game losing streak by racking up the highest score by any team this season, crushing Adelaide 19.5 (119) to 7.8 (50). Jed Anderson, Todd Goldstein and Luke McDonald were superb, while Cameron Zurhaar kicked a team-high three goals. The sentimental highlight, though, was Majak Daw’s goal in his first AFL outing in almost two years.

The finals ship has sailed for the 3–6 Kangaroos, but they will be buoyed to be hoisting themselves out of wooden-spoon range.

Geelong have won four straight against North Melbourne. The clubs met twice in 2019, with the Cats prevailing by 24 points in round 8 and 55 points in round 21. The Kangaroos kicked a club record low 1.8 (14) in the latter defeat.

There’s a big difference between beating up the hapless Crows and competing with the Cats. North’s form reversal should have positive flow-on effects but Geelong cannot afford a slip-up amid a mid-table logjam – they’ll grind out the four points here.

AFL round 10 footy tips

Head-to-head: Geelong Cats

Best bet: Margin – Geelong Cats 1–39

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ADELAIDE CROWS V MELBOURNE DEMONS: AFL ROUND 10 PREDICTION

WEDNESDAY 5 AUGUST – 8:10PM

Winless Adelaide Crows sank to a new low in round 9, losing to fellow also-rans North Melbourne by 69 points on Saturday. The blowout erased the positives of a gallant three-point loss to Essendon a week earlier.

Now three wins adrift of the field, the Crows are a near-certainty for the first wooden spoon in their history. It’s a sad decline for a club that has finished in the bottom four just twice in their 29 seasons in the competition.

Meanwhile, Melbourne Demons are picking up the pieces after a 51-point loss to Port Adelaide. After turning their season around with wins over Gold Coast and Hawthorn before a narrow defeat to high-flying Brisbane, the Dees’ snail-paced start had a severe impact against the Power.

The Demons did not kick a major until deep into the second quarter and are now languishing in 15th, although they do have a game in hand.

The Crows are 25–15 against the Demons and won a two-point thriller in round 11 last season. Trailing by 22 early in the fourth quarter, the Crows kicked five unanswered majors to snatch the points.

If Melbourne are to qualify for the finals, this is a must-win assignment. Expect a strong response after last week’s debacle – particularly from the likes of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver (if he avoids suspension for an incident against Port) and Jack Viney – and a Demons victory.

AFL round 10 footy tips

Head-to-head: Melbourne Demons

Best bet: Tri bet – Melbourne Demons -24.5

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COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES V SYDNEY SWANS: AFL ROUND 10 PREDICTION

THURSDAY 6 AUGUST – 5:40PM

Collingwood Magpies are reeling from back-to-back losses in Perth, following up a 66-point hammering from West Coast with a 12-point loss to struggling Fremantle.

The Pies led by four after a big finish to the third quarter, but were outscored four goals to one in the last term, tumbling to 10th on the ladder in the process. Steele Sidebottom (25 disposals, 2 goals) was Collingwood’s best, but Scott Pendlebury’s absence is having an impact.

Sydney Swans slumped to second-last on Saturday with their fifth loss in six games, easily accounted for by St Kilda in a 15.11 (101) to 6.12 (48) result. Tom McCartin kicked three goals, while Luke Parker and Jake Lloyd were strong for the undermanned, inexperienced Swans.

The clubs’ last three encounters were decided by seven points or less, including the Magpies’ 11.14 (80) to 11.7 (73) victory in round 10 last season. Sam Reid – who returned from injury a couple of weeks ago for his first appearance in 2020 – kicked six goals in a losing effort for the Swans.

It’s crunch time for Collingwood. With the top-eight race tightening up, another loss to an also-ran would be catastrophic. The desperation of their situation should be enough to get the Magpies over the line against the plucky-but-limited Swans.

AFL round 10 footy tips

Head-to-head: Collingwood Magpies

Best bet: Line – Collingwood Magpies -14.5

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GOLD COAST SUNS V ST KILDA SAINTS: AFL ROUND 10 PREDICTION

THURSDAY 6 AUGUST – 8.10PM

Gold Coast Suns have been one of the AFL’s feel-good stories of 2020, but a maiden finals berth is looking increasingly unlikely after four losses in their last five games.

The 4–5 Suns’ kicking efficiency went out the window in a 9.7 (61) to 4.11 (35) defeat to GWS Giants on Sunday. They kicked 0.3 in the first and third quarters of a forgettable outing and did not look hungry enough around the ground.

Third-placed St Kilda rolled on to a third successive win in round 9, racking up their highest score and biggest winning margin of the season in a 15.11 (101) to 6.12 (48) rout of Sydney. Nick Hind and rookie Max King both kicked three goals, while Jade Graham (23 disposals, 2 goals) continued his hot run of form.

With wins over Richmond and Port Adelaide to their name in 2020, the young and exciting Saints appears to have something special brewing as they set a course for the club’s first finals series since 2011. But with a very tough schedule ahead of them, Brett Ratten’s side will be desperate to keep the momentum going and bank four points at the Suns’ expense.

The Suns are 4–9 against the Saints since entering the AFL and have lost the last four straight. The last three encounters were decided by four points or less, but the Saints – the pick in the vast majority of experts’ AFL round 10 tips – should cover a modest start at Metricon Stadium.

AFL round 10 footy tips

Head-to-head: St Kilda Saints

Best bet: Line – St Kilda Saints -10.5

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ESSENDON BOMBERS V GWS GIANTS: AFL ROUND 10 PREDICTION

FRIDAY 7 AUGUST – 7:50PM

The AFL round 10 preview concludes with a pivotal Friday-night clash on the Gold Coast. The seventh-placed GWS Giants (5–4) have won their last two but can still be leapfrogged this week by ninth-placed Essendon Bombers (5–3), who are striving to bounce back from a round 9 loss.

The Giants backed up a momentous 12-point Grand Final–replay win over Richmond with a comfortable 26-point victory against Gold Coast. Lachie Whitfield, Jacob Hopper, Josh Kelly and Zac Williams all had 25-plus disposals in a performance that failed to reach any great heights but would nevertheless have satisfied coach Leon Cameron. The result was soured by a hamstring injury to gun midfielder Toby Greene, however.

The Bombers are struggling for consistency and have been terribly disappointing over the past couple of weeks. After a heavy loss to the Bulldogs and a narrow escape against the lowly Crows, the Bombers were obliterated to the tune of 63 points by the Lions last Friday.

Essendon won the inside-50 count but the team’s kicking efficiency was atrocious, landing three goals and 10 behinds.

GWS have won four of their last six against Essendon, but the Bombers defied most AFL tips with a six-point victory in round 16 last season after Shaun McKernan and Cale Hooker kicked goals in the dying minutes.

It’s very difficult to get behind the Bombers on the strength of their recent performances. The Giants are still a fair way off their title-contending best, but they look excellent value to take care of business here.

AFL round 10 footy tips

Head-to-head: GWS Giants

Best bet: Line – GWS Giants -10.5

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