AFL Round 11 Preview, Tips and Odds

AFL round 11

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We’re halfway through the AFL’s four-round frenzy featuring 20 straight days of footy – but there’s no time for fans and punters to catch their breath before round 11 kicks off.

But in a season characterised by wildly fluctuating form lines and baffling upsets, round 10 went largely to script. Defending premiers Richmond Tigers – who powered to a big win over second-placed Brisbane Lions – were the only AFL betting underdogs to taste victory.

The next batch of match-ups, running from Saturday to Wednesday, includes a bunch of blockbusters and flip-of-the-coin encounters. Check out the eight fixtures on the AFL round 11 preview docket, with an extensive breakdown and AFL round 11 tips for each clash.

 

PORT ADELAIDE POWER V RICHMOND TIGERS: AFL ROUND 11 PREDICTION

SATURDAY 8 AUGUST – 4:35PM

The AFL round 11 preview gets underway with a top-four barn burner.

Port Adelaide moved four points to clear the top of the AFL ladder with an 8.7 (55) to 5.12 (42) win over Western Bulldogs – it was the resurgent club’s eighth win from 10 games. Zak Butters was integral as the Power turned a three-point half-time deficit into a four-goal lead at three-quarter time.

Richmond, now fourth with a 6–3–1 record, hit a high point in their 2020 revival midweek. The Tigers’ Tom Lynch (3 goals) and Dustin Martin (24 disposals, 3 goal assists) led the team to an inspired 41-point demolition of the high-flying Lions, their fifth in six outings. The defending champs have opted to rest veteran skipper Trent Cotchin from this clash.

After winning five of the teams’ previous seven clashes, the Power went down twice to the eventual premiers in 2019. Tom Lynch kicked nine goals across the two games as the Tigers won by seven points in Adelaide and 38 at the MCG.

Port deserve the accolades that have flowed their way but this is a huge test and they are yet to beat an in-form heavyweight. The extra day’s rest amid this hectic schedule is a handy advantage but the Tigers are hot and should take this one.

AFL round 11 footy tips

Head-to-head: Richmond Tigers

Best bet: Margin – Richmond Tigers 1–39

See all markets for Port Adelaide Power and Richmond Tigers.

 

BRISBANE LIONS V WESTERN BULLDOGS: AFL ROUND 11 PREDICTION

SATURDAY 8 AUGUST – 7:40PM

Wouldn’t these sides love a bounce-back victory on Saturday night?

Brisbane’s premiership credentials received a sizeable dent courtesy of a 41-point defeat by Richmond on Tuesday. The 7–3 Lions slipped to third on percentages after a performance characterised by woeful inaccuracy in front of goal, with their 4.17 score featuring a string of easy misses.

Coming off their own 41-point loss to the Tigers in round 9, Western Bulldogs were also terribly wasteful in Monday’s 8.7 (55) to 5.12 (42) defeat at the hands of the Power. The 5–5 Bulldogs slipped out of the top eight with that result.

The teams split their two 2019 encounters: the Bulldogs prevailed by 16 points in Ballarat, while the Lions snapped a five-match losing streak in the rivalry with an 18-point victory in Brisbane. Charlie Cameron enjoyed a four-goal haul in the latter.

While the Lions were in poor form earlier this week, expect it to be merely a blip. Their only losses since the restart have been to canny big guns Geelong and Richmond – they’re likely to justify their AFL round 11 odds and put away the middling Bulldogs.

AFL round 11 footy tips

Head-to-head: Brisbane Lions

Best bet: Line – Brisbane Lions -14.5

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WEST COAST EAGLES V CARLTON BLUES: AFL ROUND 11 PREDICTION

SUNDAY 9 AUGUST – 3:35PM

West Coast was on a major roll by the end of the round 10, but the team will nevertheless have appreciated the bye – it’s only an eight-day turnaround to this clash after they outlast Geelong in a heavyweight duel.

The Eagles trailed at every change but kicked four goals to one in the final term to beat the Cats by nine points, their sixth win in a row. Josh Kennedy continued his outstanding form with four goals (including three in the last quarter), while Dom Sheed and Nic Naitanui were also influential.

Carlton went into the bye on a downer, having lost to battling Hawthorn by 31 points. The most agonising aspect of the loss for the Blues? The fact they were up by 31 points at one stage with Patrick Cripps firing and they showed little resolve as the Hawks stormed back. The 4–5 Blues are now 13th, with their finals hopes looking very tenuous.

West Coast is on a five-match winning streak against Carlton. Liam Ryan was the four-goal star of a 24-point win in Melbourne last season. The Blues have not beaten the Eagles in Perth since 2013.

In what is probably the most straightforward prediction of the AFL round 11 preview (yes, even including the Crows), the Eagles will surely march on to their seventh win in a row – they are on fire.

AFL round 11 footy tips

Head-to-head: West Coast Eagles

Best bet: Tri bet – West Coast Eagles -24.5

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MELBOURNE DEMONS V NORTH MELBOURNE KANGAROOS: AFL ROUND 11 PREDICTION

SUNDAY 9 AUGUST – 6:10PM

Melbourne Demons capitalised on being drawn against the winless Adelaide Crows in round 10, but they need to back that up to truly re-enter the finals conversation.

In a much-needed response to their dismal loss to the Power, the 12th-placed Dees smashed the Crows by 51 points. Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney grabbed the midfield limelight predominantly occupied by Christian Petracca in recent times, while Sam Weideman booted three goals.

North Melbourne snapped a six-match losing streak with a massive win over the Crows in round 9, but the 15th-placed Kangaroos were no match for Geelong on Wednesday. The Roos went down by 33 points after losing forward spearhead Ben Brown early to injury.

The Kangaroos have enjoyed a mental hold over the Demons for well over a decade, winning 18 of the teams’ last 19 encounters. The Dees ended a long drought against North during their watershed 2018 campaign, but the Kangaroos grabbed a five-point final-round win last year.

Only four points separate these sides on the ladder, but the AFL round 11 odds reflect the difference in quality and potential. The Demons have to take this opportunity and will.

AFL round 11 footy tips

Head-to-head: Melbourne Demons

Best bet: Total – over 125.5 points

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ST KILDA SAINTS V GEELONG CATS: AFL ROUND 11 PREDICTION

MONDAY 10 AUGUST – 6:10PM

Few are prepared to declare St Kilda Saints the real deal, but they are on a four-match winning streak and have climbed to second on the ladder with a 7–3 record. A return to the finals for the first time since 2011 appears a formality.

After a few sizeable victories, the Saints recorded easily their smallest winning margin of the season on Thursday by edging out the Suns 12.6 (78) to 11.8 (74). Dan Butler starred with four goals, while Jack Billings and Jack Steele were outstanding in the midfield.

Geelong responded to their nine-point loss to West Coast – a missed chance after leading for the majority – by cruising to a 33-point win over lowly North Melbourne in round 10. The fifth-placed Cats have been struggling for consistency but that result could be the ideal palate cleanser. Small forward Gryan Miers stole the show with a career-best four goals, while Tom Hawkins, Cam Guthrie and Sam Menegola also shone.

St Kilda has won just one of its last 10 against Geelong. The Cats have won the last three straight, including a 12.12 (84) to 8.9 (57) result in round 17 last season.

The Saints already have the scalps of the Tigers and Power to their name. This might be their toughest test yet and comes with a day’s less rest, but it has the feel of an absolute cliffhanger.

AFL round 11 footy tips

Head-to-head: Geelong Cats

Best bet: Line – St Kilda Saints +10.5

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FREMANTLE DOCKERS V HAWTHORN HAWKS: AFL ROUND 11 PREDICTION

MONDAY 10 AUGUST – 8:40PM

Fremantle Dockers and Hawthorn Hawks both had the luxury of a round 10 bye and spent it basking in morale-boosting victories.

The Dockers banked their third win of the season in round 9, recording a shock 10.1 (61) to 7.7 (49) upset of the Magpies. Rookie Caleb Serong enhanced his Rising Star claims with a brilliant showing, Nat Fyfe starred in his return and Matt Taberner kicked four majors.

The Hawks, written off as a spent force over the past month, snapped a four-match losing streak with a 31-point defeat of the Blues. James Worpel, Tom Mitchell and Shaun Burgoyne inspired a comeback from 31 points down, while Jack Gunston slotted a team-high three goals.

The Hawks boast a commanding 28–8 lead over the Dockers in the all-time ledger and have won the last six in a row between the clubs. Each victory in the current streak came by 27-plus points, including last season’s 12.12 (84) to 8.5 (53) result in Launceston.

There’s an argument among AFL expert tippers that neither of these teams are as bad as their ladder position suggests. And as the AFL round 11 odds indicate, the Dockers and Hawks are very tough to split at present. Expect a close one in Perth.

AFL round 11 footy tips

Head-to-head: Fremantle Dockers

Best bet: Tri bet – either team by 15 or less

See all markets for Fremantle Dockers and Hawks.

 

ADELAIDE CROWS V COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES: AFL ROUND 11 PREDICTION

TUESDAY 11 AUGUST – 6:35PM

Adelaide Crows’ maiden wooden spoon appears a fait accompli. The focus on the embattled club has now switched to whether the team can win a game. The Crows went 0–10 via a 51-point loss to the Demons on Wednesday. They stayed in the contest to trail by just five at half-time but were outscored eight goals to one in the final two quarters – a familiar 2020 narrative.

Collingwood Magpies were relieved to get out of Perth – where they lost to the Eagles by 66 and were upset by the cellar-dwelling Dockers in consecutive rounds – rescuing their flagging fortunes with a nine-point win over the Swans at the Gabba in round 10. But the 6.14 (50) to 6.5 (41) result – which included a 2.10 first half – underlines the Pies’ terrible inaccuracy.

Josh Daicos and Taylor Adams came up big in a win that improved Collingwood to a 5-4-1 record, but Will Hoskin-Elliott, Adam Treloar and Isaac Quaynor all failed to finish the match.

The Magpies have won their last two against the Crows – both at Adelaide Oval – by 48-plus margins. Jamie Elliott booted five goals (more than his current 2020 total) in a 66-point drubbing late last season.

Collingwood is just hanging on, but facing Adelaide could be just the tonic to help them get their flag bid back on track.

AFL round 11 footy tips

Head-to-head: Collingwood Magpies

Best bet: Line – Collingwood Magpies -21.5

See all markets for Adelaide Crows and Collingwood Magpies.

 

GOLD COAST SUNS V ESSENDON BOMBERS: AFL ROUND 11 PREDICTION

WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST – 7:10PM

Gold Coast Suns were gallant losers by four points in one of the games of the season against high-flying St Kilda on Thursday. But honourable defeats do nothing for a team’s ladder position – and the plucky Suns’ fifth loss in six games leaves them in 12th spot.

The Suns led by nine points during the final quarter after impressive young forward Ben King kicked his third goal but were reeled in by the Saints. Hugh Greenwood was the midfield standout, while Izak Rankine continues to notch up highlight-reel moments.

Essendon Bombers are also desperate for results, slipping to 11th after back-to-back defeats to Brisbane (63 points) and GWS (4 points). While the Bombers improved overall from their round 9 demolition at the hands of the Lions, bottling a 29-point lead against the Giants was another indictment on the finals credentials of John Worsfold’s side.

Zach Merrett (33 disposals) was outstanding as the Bombers got out a healthy lead, but the team kicked just one of the last seven goals in the match. The collapse was soured further by an injury to Jacob Townsend, who looks likely to join Essendon’s big forward contingent in the casualty ward.

The Suns are just 2–8 against the Bombers since entering the AFL in 2011. They gave up a 16-point halftime lead to lose by 10 in a high-scoring 2019 affair; Ben King (Suns) and Shaun McKernan (Bombers) both kicked four goals.

Gold Coast was the narrow favourite as of Monday. With an extra day’s rest (the Bombers played on Friday night) and more reliable recent form on the board, the Suns shape as the best bet.

AFL round 11 footy tips

Head-to-head: Gold Coast Suns

Best bet: Margin – Gold Coast Suns 1–39

See all markets for Gold Coast Suns and Essendon Bombers.

 

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