AFL Round 6 Preview, Tips and Odds

AFL Round 6

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The coronavirus-related disruptions to AFL 2020 went up another notch this week. All 18 clubs are now based in Sydney, Brisbane and Gold Coast after the league scrambled to rejig the AFL round 6 schedule following increased COVID-19 cases (and eventual city-wide lockdown) in Melbourne.

The home-and-away season is almost one-third of the way through, but heavyweights Richmond, Collingwood and West Coast are still languishing in the bottom half. Meanwhile, Port Adelaide and Brisbane are the co-leaders in a congested top eight.

Every AFL round 5 encounter featured a margin of 18-plus points. But, incredibly, eight of this week’s nine match-ups were decided by 10 points or fewer when the clubs last met.

Check out our AFL round 6 predictions and AFL round 6 tips ahead of what’s shaping as a bumper weekend of nailbiters.

 

GEELONG CATS V BRISBANE LIONS: AFL ROUND 6 PREDICTION

THURSDAY 9 JULY – 7:40PM

 The SCG hosts a 2 v 3 showdown as Geelong and Brisbane both aim to back up impressive 37-point wins in round 5.

The Cats led the surprise-packet Gold Coast Suns by just four points at the main break last Saturday, but kicked eight goals to three in the second half. Tom Hawkins (3 goals, 17 disposals, 8 marks) and Mitch Duncan (25 disposals, 4 tackles) were the stand-outs of a clinical wire-to-wire victory, which gave the Cats back-to-back wins for the first time since round 12 last year.

Brownlow Medal favourite Lachie Neale and fellow midfielder Jarryd Lyons spearheaded the Lions’ top-of-the-table win over Port Adelaide Power. A six-goals-to-one second quarter proved crucial, while Brisbane’s talls were also dominant. Captain Dayne Zorko’s absence has been compounded by Cam Ellis-Yolmen’s calf complaint, however, testing the Lions’ midfield stocks.

The Lions were on the second line of premiership betting on Tuesday as we head into round 6, while punters remain cautious about the seventh-favourite Cats’ title chances.

Geelong has won 18 of its last 21 against Brisbane, but the Lions won a one-point thriller with a final-quarter surge at the Gabba last season – snapping an eight-match losing streak (all by 25-plus margins) at the hands of the Cats.

The Lions are on a four-match winning streak, although the team has benefited from being located in the Brisbane hub. But they should be good enough to take the points in neutral territory.

 AFL footy tips: round 6

Head-to-head: Brisbane Lions

Best bet: Margin – Brisbane Lions 1–39

See all markets for Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions.

 

 

COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES V HAWTHORN HAWKS: AFL ROUND 6 PREDICTIONS

FRIDAY 10 JULY – 7:50PM

Another Sydney showdown between a pair of out-of-towners, this match sees Collingwood and Hawthorn both desperate for a W after round 5 defeats.

Things have really spiralled for the Magpies after they finished round 3 undefeated. Back-to-back losses to the Giants and Bombers came against the backdrop of Steele Sidebottom’s and Lynden Dunn’s suspensions for breaching COVID-19 protocols, Jeremy Howe’s season-ending knee injury and an indecent assault charge against Jordan De Goey. And then there’s the form of maligned ruckman Mason Cox. Form-wise 10th-placed Collingwood are not too far off the mark, but the absentees and disruptions make a tough upcoming draw even tougher.

The ninth-placed Hawks received a reality check last weekend when they crashed to a 34-point loss to GWS after consecutive wins over Richmond and North Melbourne in the weeks prior. They never recovered from a goalless first quarter. Luke Breust (fractured jaw) is still a month away from a return.

It’s been slim pickings for Collingwood against Hawthorn since winning the 2011 preliminary final showdown, chalking up just one victory in their last 13 encounters with the Hawks. The Hawks rallied from 10 points down at three-quarter time to beat the Magpies by four in their sole clash last season.

AFL round 6 tips are split for this one. But despite their setbacks, the Pies still have the edge in class and look the better chance of bouncing back on Friday night.

AFL footy tips: round 6

Head-to-head: Collingwood Magpies

Best bet: Line – Collingwood Magpies -6.5

See all markets for Collingwood Magpies and Hawthorn Hawks.

 

 

FREMANTLE DOCKERS V ST KILDA SAINTS: AFL ROUND 6 PREDICTIONS

SATURDAY 11 JULY – 12:35PM

Fresh from their maiden victory of 2020, Fremantle Dockers attempt to keep the momentum going when they take on the in-form St Kilda Saints on the Gold Coast.

The Dockers got off the mark via a 20-point win over fellow stragglers Adelaide Crows. With Nat Fyfe sidelined, Angus Brayshaw, David Mundy and Michael Walter shone – though Freo needed a three-goals-to-none final quarter to get the result.

The Saints backed up their round 4 upset of Richmond with an 18-point win over Carlton, set up by a dominant first-half performance. Jack Steele’s gritty work inside and Jack Billings’s silky skills were the stand-out individual features of a solid team effort. Dan Hannebery’s injury soured the Saints’ night somewhat, however.

Three of the teams’ last four encounters were decided by single-digit margins. In 2019, the Saints prevailed by five points in Perth in round 3 before the Dockers turned the tables with a three-point win at Marvel Stadium in round 21.

If St Kilda – the resounding favourite midweek – is to be taken seriously in 2020, these are the games it has to ice. Despite Fyfe’s potential return, Fremantle is ripe for the picking.

AFL footy tips: round 6

Head-to-head: St Kilda Saints

Best bet: Tri bet – St Kilda Saints -24.5

See all markets for Fremantle Dockers and St Kilda Saints.

 

 

WEST COAST EAGLES V ADELAIDE CROWS: AFL ROUND 6 PREDICTIONS

SATURDAY 11 JULY – 3:05PM

West Coast snapped a three-match losing streak and eased some pressure with a 34-point win over Sydney in round 5. Nic Naitanui, Elliot Yeo, Oscar Allen and Jamie Cripps starred after Luke Shuey exited early. But the result will mean little if they can’t follow it up with a similar showing against battling Adelaide.

The Crows are the only team in the league without a win, with a 20-point loss to Fremantle last weekend their most recent failure. A third-quarter rally that brought the Crows to level was about the only positive of a match in which they kicked 4.10.

Six of the clubs’ last nine clashes have gone the way of the Eagles, including a 12-point win in Adelaide and a 10-point victory in Perth last season. Jack Darling kicked three goals in both matches for West Coast.

While West Coast are a long way from being back on track, there’s a cavernous gulf in class between these teams and the midweek odds – and the overwhelming majority of AFL round 6 predictions – rightly suggest the Eagles will rack up a sizeable win.

AFL footy tips: round 6

Head-to-head: West Coast Eagles

Best bet: Line / total points double – West Coast -30.5 / under 123.5

See all markets for West Coast Eagles and Adelaide Crows.

 

 

MELBOURNE DEMONS V GOLD COAST SUNS: AFL ROUND 6 PREDICTIONS

SATURDAY 11 JULY – 6:05PM

Melbourne’s season is already starting to slip away, with the team sitting second-last with just one win on the board. The Demons do have a game in hand after their round 3 clash with the Bombers was postponed, but a 27-point defeat to the Tigers last week has them on their heels.

Despite having more inside 50s and clearances than the premiers, the Demons were still convincingly beaten, with a paltry second-quarter return of one behind proving crucial. The form of Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver provide strands of optimism for Melbourne fans to cling to.

Gold Coast’s blossoming campaign hit a major roadblock in round 5. Coming off three straight wins, the Suns went down to Geelong by 37 points – but, more devastatingly, they lost rookie sensation Matt Rowell to a dislocated shoulder. It’s a harrowing reminder of Gary Ablett Jr’s season-ending shoulder injury back in 2014. The Suns led the Cats during the third quarter before capitulating in a scoreless final term.

The Demons boast a 10–3 all-time record against the Suns, winning the last seven matches between the clubs. The Dees snatched a one-point win in a round 8 low-scorer at Metricon Stadium last season.

The Suns need to prove they can win without Rowell and make something of their strong start to 2020. The Demons just need to win. Pundits’ AFL round 6 tips and the midweek head-to-head odds are struggling to split the sides; expect it to go down to the wire.

AFL footy tips: round 6

Head-to-head: Melbourne Demons

Best bet: Tri Bet – either team by 15 or less

See all markets for Melbourne Demons and Gold Coast Suns.

 

 

ESSENDON BOMBERS V NORTH MELBOURNE KANGAROOS: AFL ROUND 6 PREDICTION

SATURDAY 11 JULY – 7:40PM

Fifth with a game in hand, the 3–1 Essendon Bombers put coronavirus snafus and a one-point loss to Carlton behind them to upset Collingwood by 15 points last Friday. Midfield linchpin Dylan Shiel is on fire for the Bombers, but the onus will be on their forward line to lift after the injury to Jake Stringer.

North Melbourne Kangaroos are trending downwards, losing three in a row since their round 2 upset of GWS. Last weekend’s 49-point loss to Western Bulldogs – kicking just five goals – was easily their worst of the season.

Conceding points from stoppages is destroying the Roos; scoring from stoppages just happens to be one of the Bombers’ strengths.

Essendon is on a four-match winning streak against North Melbourne. Orazio Fantasia kicked four goals in the Bombers’ 58-point victory in round 5 last year, while the mercurial Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti was the four-goal star (including kicking the matchwinner in the dying stages) of a five-point cliffhanger in round 17. Zach Merrett had a whopping 73 disposals for Essendon across the two games.

The signs were ominous last week for the 13th-placed Kangaroos, with the Bombers the clear AFL round 6 tip for this Metricon Stadium match-up.

AFL footy tips: round 6

Head-to-head: Essendon Bombers

Best bet: Line – Essendon Bombers -8.5

See all markets for Essendon Bombers and North Melbourne Kangaroos.

 

 

PORT ADELAIDE POWER V GWS GIANTS: AFL ROUND 6 PREDICTIONS

SUNDAY 12 JULY – 1:05PM

Port Adelaide Power hung onto top spot on the AFL ladder last week, despite tasting defeat for the first time in 2020. The Power will rue their wastefulness after their 37-point loss to Brisbane Lions, kicking one goal and six behinds in the first quarter and finishing 6.12. Brownlow contender Travis Boak was impressive, but it’s vital that Port bounce back against GWS after flunking their first test against a quality team.

The 3–2 Giants appear to be back on the rails after dropping their first two games following the AFL season’s resumption. Last week’s 13.5 (83) to 7.7 (49) defeat of Hawthorn was particularly impressive given the Giants had just 26 inside-50s. Jeremy Finlayson and Harry Himmelberg both kicked four goals, while Toby Greene’s return from injury has been a huge boost over the past fortnight.

GWS has won its last five matches against Port, including a one-point thriller in Adelaide in round 18 last year. The Giants, who opened as narrow favourites for this clash and are the current premiership favourites as of Tuesday 7 July, should be able to parlay their momentum into a victory on the Gold Coast.

 AFL footy tips: round 6

Head-to-head: GWS Giants

Best bet: Head-to-head – GWS Giants

See all markets for Port Adelaide Power and GWS Giants.

 

 

RICHMOND TIGERS V SYDNEY SWANS: AFL ROUND 6 PREDICTIONS

SUNDAY 12 JULY – 3:35PM

Richmond Tigers banked their first win since round 1 with a 27-point success against Melbourne last week, with a four-goals-to-none surge in the second quarter the key period of the match.

But a horror injury toll is the premiers’ chief concern at present. Dion Prestia and Toby Nankervis underwent surgery, Trent Cotchin is out with a hamstring complaint, forward spearhead Tom Lynch is unlikely to recover from a hand injury, and Bachar Houli and Shane Edwards skipped the trip to Queensland for family reasons.

Sydney has slipped to a 2–3 record after a promising start, losing to Western Bulldogs by 28 points and West Coast by 34 points in the past fortnight. The Swans’ heavily populated casualty ward appears to be catching up with a team few were tipping for the top eight at full strength.

Dustin Martin was on fire in the Tigers’ 22-point win over the Swans in round 5 last season, chalking up three goals and 25 disposals. It was Richmond’s seventh win from its last 11 clashes with Sydney.

The Tigers’ injury woes have kept the head-to-head odds relatively even, but AFL round 6 tips all point to a handsome win over the Swans at the Gabba.

 AFL footy tips: round 6

Head-to-head: Richmond Tigers

Best bet: Head-to-head – Richmond Tigers

See all markets for Richmond Tigers and Sydney Swans.

 

 

CARLTON BLUES V WESTERN BULLDOGS: AFL ROUND 6 PREDICTIONS

SUNDAY 12 JULY – 6:45PM

Narrow victors over Geelong and Essendon in the previous two rounds, Carlton went down to St Kilda by 18 points last Thursday. The slow-starting Blues competed strongly for the most part but couldn’t eat into a 20-point deficit at the end of the first quarter.

Mitch McGovern will be looking for a big game after a disappointing showing against the Saints. Brilliant Blues skipper Patrick Cripps will also be eager to dominate after being outpointed by Jack Steele.

Western Bulldogs have slid into the top eight via three straight wins, an impressive recovery from their 0–2 start to the season. They appear to be improving with every outing and crushed the Kangaroos by 49 points in round 5. Josh Bruce was the chief beneficiary, with a six-goal bag, while seven Bulldogs had 20-plus disposals in a fine team performance.

The Bulldogs have won six of their last seven against the Blues. The Blues romped to a 44-point win in round 5 – the only 40-plus margin between the clubs since 2010 – but the Bulldogs led from wire to wire in an eventual three-point victory two months later.

Carlton will struggle to combat the Bulldogs’ defensive steel and ability to sweep from the defensive end to the forward 50. The midweek odds and AFL round 6 predictions point to a fourth straight win for Luke Beveridge’s side.

AFL footy tips: round 6

Head-to-head: Western Bulldogs

Best bet: Margin – Western Bulldogs 1–39

See all markets for Carlton Blues and Western Bulldogs.

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