Biden Is Back: Joe Wins South Carolina


Joe Biden has risen from the dead (figuratively of course) and won the South Carolina primary.

The former Vice President captured nearly 49% of the vote  and our traders have shortened his odds of winning the Democratic nomination to $3.50 from $11.00

Bernie Sanders, who finished second with 20% of the South Carolina vote, still leads the delegate count, and is still favoured to win the nomination at $1.91 (out from $1.83).

Both men still trail President Trump in the Presidential election market. Trump is $1.62 to be re-elected, while Sanders is $4.00 to win the election and Biden now $8.00.

Billionaire Tom Steyer, who subsequently dropped out of the race, earned 11.4% of the South Carolina vote, while Pete Buttegieg was fourth (8.2%), Elizabeth Warren fifth (7.1%) and Amy Klobuchar far behind on just 3.1%.

Michael Bloomberg, at $7.00 to win the nomination, was not on the ballot.

Up next is Super Tuesday (this Wednesday in Australia), where 14 states and American Samoa go to the polls. This will be the single most important day of the campaign so far.


Joe Biden: Huge comeback after finishing well back in Iowa and New Hampshire. Biden won among African-American voters and more moderate voters, which could set the stage for wins in states like Alabama, North Carolina and Tennessee on Super Tuesday. His status as the main challenger to Sanders could be confirmed by the end of the week.
Odds of winning Democratic nomination: $3.50 (in from $11.00)


Bernie Sanders: Still leads the delegate count 53-41, but was trounced by Biden at the polls. A stronger showing could have essentially sealed the nomination, but now he’s in the fight of his life, with some crucial states coming up this week.
Odds of winning Democratic nomination: $1.91 (out from $1.83)

Pete Buttigieg: According to insiders, ‘Mayor Pete’ is taking a long hard look at his candidacy to see if there is a way forward. He’s unlikely to pull out before Super Tuesday but things don’t look too promising for the wunderkind from South Bend.
Odds of winning Democratic nomination: $15.00 (out from $7.00)

Amy Klobuchar: Another candidate who will take a long look in the mirror. Can’t see her staying in the race for much longer.
Odds of winning Democratic nomination: $20.00 (steady)

Jury’s Out

Michael Bloomberg: Biden’s win puts a dent in Bloomberg’s theory that he is the best candidate to defeat Bernie Sanders. He’ll be on the ballot on Super Tuesday, so the billionaire finally gets to put his mouth where his money is.
Odds of winning Democratic nomination: $7.00 (out from $5.00)

Elizabeth Warren: Finished way back in the pack in South Carolina and unless something extraordinary happens, it will be difficult for her to stay in the race.
Odds of winning Democratic nomination: $41.00 (out from $34.00)


Markets for the 2020 Democratic nominee.

Markets for the 2020 Presidential election.

What do you think?