Crisis Puts Twist In Democratic Nomination

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These are turbulent times and the Democratic Party and frontrunner Joe Biden are feeling it along with the rest of the world.

Before the Coronavirus outbreak, Biden had all but sealed the Democratic Presidential nomination and in fact our traders had him at $1.04 to win it. His main opponent, Bernie Sanders had driftly badly, out to $23.00.

Biden’s charge was so strong that he was priced at $2.00 – same as Donald Trump – to win the 2020 Presidential election.

But then the world changed.

Primaries were postponed, people – including Biden – went into isolation and Donald Trump became the focal point of the news on a daily basis.

Fascinatingly, despite negative press and response to his tweets, Trump’s approval rating has gone up. The President is now into $1.80 to win re-election in November, with Biden out to $2.25.

Biden has long struggled as a public speaker and communicator, with some of his recent ramblings from isolation concerning to those in the Democratic party’s inner circle.

This might be the reason – along with time in the spotlight thanks to the current crisis – that New York governor Andrew Cuomo is now priced at $15.00 to win the Democratic nomination. Sanders, meanwhile, has quietly moved back into $17.00.

Cuomo, whose state has been the hardest hit in the US, provides daily briefings which are proving to be must-watch viewing for millions of Americans stuck at home during the crisis.

There is still plenty to play out, with massive uncertainties around the virus, the economy and the election itself.

The remaining primary schedule is up in the air, with Biden about 800 delegates short of the required majority of 1,991.

It is even possible that July’s Democratic national convention could be postponed or canceled, creating huge complications around the nomination.

Indeed, we could have quite a race on our hands.

Markets

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

$1.14 Joe Biden
$15.00 Andrew Cuomo
$17.00 Bernie Sanders
$17.00 Hillary Clinton

US Presidential Election 2020

$1.80 Donald Trump
$2.25 Joe Biden
$23.00 Andrew Cuomo
$34.00 Bernie Sanders

 

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