Jules’ Golden Slipper Preview

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The 2018 Golden Slipper is a Group 1 set weights race for 2 year olds held over 1200m at Rosehill.

Previous winners have included She Will Reign, Pierro, Sepoy, Miss Finland and Dance Hero. In the last eleven years, the favourite has won four times, with only two winners at that time starting double figures.

Interesting to note that in the last 11 years, five fillies have won the race.

Expecting track to be very soft, with that in mind and the rail out 2 metres, I am expecting that the inside will be a disadvantage. The forecast of rain throughout the week, will most likely have the track come up in the Soft/Heavy range, and by Race 7 I am expecting the best ground to be at least 3 or 4 off the fence. I am expecting genuine speed here with Sizzling Belle, Ef Troop and Estijaab all going forward. The two favourites Sunlight and Written By should get lovely runs behind the speed.

Below is my analysis of the key chances.

1.       Written By – Was heavily backed and ran up to market expectations by winning the Blue Diamond, came to Sydney last week and off a moderate tempo got home in a tick over 11.5, sets up perfectly to peak again this week. Did win debut on heavy ground, will not be surprised to see him start favourite. Top pick for me.

2.       Santos – Has been good winning last two and since won trial on heavy ground, should get a lovely run from gate 7, I think his price will drift on the day and start double figures, but is a live winning chance.

5.       Performer – Was $2.10 favourite when lost Bowman at the 300m last start, dont think he would have won but has since won a trial on wet ground and gets the blinkers first time here. Will be worse than midfield and might get to the right part of the track and storm home but I am happy to go around him. 

 10.      Sunlight – Current favourite who was brilliant putting a string of wins together in scintillating time on the Gold Coast culminating in the Magic Millions victory. Was only fair last week to my eye and I think you have to trust McEvoy’s prep to see her bounce back to that level she showed north of the border. If she gets back to the Gold Coast form she will be winning but I am worried about her after last week and happy to take her on. The betting will be fascinating with this filly.

11.     Estijaab – Good filly who likes to sit on speed, barrier 17 really concerns me as my speed map has her sitting at least 3 wide the journey. Think she will remain at a double figure quote.

15.     Seabrook – Missing the Blue Diamond might be a blessing in disguise for this filly. Her win at Randwick  3 weeks ago was good but she was entitled to win that with the run she was afforded off a hot tempo, she should get conditions to suit again and can sweep down middle of the track with Oliver aboard. Think she is a great winning chance.

 

What do you think?