Jules’ TJ Smith & Doncaster Preview

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All roads lead to Randwick Day 1 of the Championships. We’re expecting dry conditions, the rail position will be true and expect on speed to be an advantage with horses coming off the rail in the straight. 

The 2018 Doncaster Mile  is a Group 1 handicap race held over 1600m at Randwick.

Previous winners have included Winx, More Joyous, Sunline and Super Impose. In the last eleven years, Chris Waller has trained six of the winners. In that time, three favourites have won the race, with four winners being at double figure odds.

I don’t think there is a lot of speed engaged with Arbeitsam and Invincible Gem taking it up, it should give Happy Clapper and Kementari beautiful runs in behind the speed.

Below is an analysis of the key chances:

Humidor – Won the Blamey Stakes last start, big factor here is blinkers go back on, he ran a career peak in the shades in the Cox Plate when he ran Winx to a half length. Needs to replicate that run to be winning here. Think he will slightly drift from current quote.

Happy Clapper – In stellar form this preparation, dry track is a major advantage. Expecting Shinn to be positive from the inside gate and sitting just behind the leader, if tempo is moderate he will be mighty hard to run down. Clear second pick.

Kementari – 3yo who won the Randwick Guineas and then was ridden conservative last start behind Winx. Expect them to ride him positive from the gate and he has the best turn of foot in the race and will be extremely hard to beat. Clear top pick. Expect him to run clear cut solid favourite.

Comin’ Through – Going very well and was good win last start, well weighted and should get a lovely run from gate 7. Think he will start shorter than current quote, could start single figures.

D’Argento – Progressive 3 year old who brilliantly won the Rosehill Guineas, drops back to 1600m which is a proven formula for Waller, I just have my doubts about giving his major rivals a big start and think he may prefer some sting out of the track. Expecting his price to drift.

The 2018 TJ Smith Stakes is a Group 1, weight for age race held over 1200m.

In the last eleven years, the favourite has won 4 times, with two of those winners starting in red figures. In that time only once has the winner started in double figures.

Below is an analysis of the key chances:

Redzel – Current $2.30 favourite who will make his own luck up on the speed and be mighty hard to beat. Not the most traditional prep for this 1200m race but impossible to knock the camp. I am expecting his price to drift on race day.

Brave Smash –  Just touched out in the Newmarket, ripping him is last 200m in around 11 seconds, should get a beautiful trail off the speed and if coiled up will be charging late. Irrelevant to this week but he looks a sensational bet in the All Aged Stakes in a fortnight.

In Her Time – Mare who ran a career peak last start in winning the Galaxy, fantastic winning record of 8 from 18 and will be challenging late. Expect price to remain solid.

Trapeze Artist – 3yo who is over the odds for mine at the current double figure quote. He has a devastating turn of foot when he gets conditions to suit and I think the map might allow him to sit one out one back if this happens. he can win this race. Think he will shorten and could start single figures.

 

What do you think?