SEEING THE LIGHT – TWO MORE PUNTING TRAPS TO AVOID

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The Lighthouse’s boyish good looks have copped a hammering this past week after a tooth infection forced an emergency extraction. Always the optimist, apprentice comedian Mrs Lighthouse says the procedure has made me more readily identifiable as a Collingwood supporter. The shit I have to put up with!

Let’s start this week with…….

TWO PUNTING TRAPS I’M AVOIDING

Trap 1.  How many times does a class animal back up for an extra seemingly afterthought run after having contested its target races for the campaign? And how many times does the race look like an easy kill?  And how many times does said beast start at skinny odds and run like Kim Jong-Un?

Vow and Declare, Quick Thinker and Pippie are three of many recently, that looked thrown into lesser races on the back of strong Group 1 form and ran like molasses.

As with every rule there are exceptions after the event. Who knew for example that Dalasan was being set for the $100k Port Adelaide Guineas rather than the $5mil All Star Mile!!  Although at 2’s on you missed nothing by not being aboard.

Trap 2.   Being from quality stock himself, The Lighthouse loves his breeding and when in doubt often backs or discards a horse on the basis of its parentage, especially when a horse steps up in grade, hits a wet track or goes to a new distance for the first time.

The first crop of high profile stallion Zoustar, now 4yo’s, are natural winners, (85 from 105 runners) and generally keep on improving as they mature. As a punter you love getting on board a horse stringing the wins together and many first crop Zoustar’s have.

But the Lighthouse fears that this bloke may have done his best work early. I’ve lost count of how many of his second and third crop have been spruiked and underdelivered. Just one low level black type winner this season in Sisstar for his 3yo’s, and she’s a full sister to the infinitely superior 4yo Sunlight. His 2yo’s have collectively won a puny one race this season. No doubt through weight of opportunity he’ll deliver an occasional good horse (maybe Zoushine?), but I’ve been saving money avoiding short odds about his youngsters.

SPECIAL GUEST TIPSTER RED HOT RICHO

Recently, with the footy in mothballs, the Lighthouse has joined in a Saturday tipping comp kindly run by a mate and part owner of Mr. Exclusive, known to most as Hyxy. About 60 experts have been entering (Hyxy says he can take more) with tipsters providing a single tip in each race in Sydney and Melbourne and nominating a banker bet for both meetings. Winning tips are credited with the Supertab Div, with a double dividend if your “good thing” salutes. Highest $ amount at the end of the day scoops the prize pool.

Last week a gunslinger called Red Hot Richo rode into Tombstone and obliterated all records in this comp. His good thing at Flemington delivered at 40/1 while at Rosehill he cheered home Saffiano($5), Sweet Scandal($14), Tactical Advantage($15) and Oakfield Missile($26). That’s a top afternoon’s work.

This is the same Red Hot Richo that is universally regarded as the world’s unluckiest golfer. It was his overclubbed bunker shot on the 9th at Coolum in 2015 that shortcircuited Clive Palmer’s prize dinosaur Jeff, starting the fire that led to the resort’s closure 3 days later. And it was Richo who discovered in 2008 that the Tasmanian Tiger was still out there when he struck and killed one with his 4 iron approach to the 8th at Barnbougle. He still moans to this day that “It was heading for the bloody hole”. For the record the Tasmanian Tiger is now without doubt extinct.

So, what had turned this Links Liability into a Tipping Titan?

“Racing is much easier than golf”, Richo told me, launching into a lengthy recitation of his tipping theories, as we all can when we’ve nailed a few winners.

“Richo, actions speak louder than words. Give my readers your best for Sandown and the big Adelaide meeting this Saturday and we’ll see whether you’re the real deal.”

As we were winding up, I remarked that he must have made out like a bandit last Saturday.  “New golf clubs?” I suggested.

“Nah, Lighthouse, didn’t actually have a bet”

“What the? Well if that’s the case Richo, promise me you won’t back this week’s tips either”

And he has.

SO here are Red Hot Richo’s Saturday Certainties.

SANDOWN – Race 7 Lombardo($7)

MORPHETTVILLE  – Race 3 Naseeb ($9.50)

Go you good things!!

THIS WEEKS TIPS FROM BENCHMARK 70 ZORADAMUS

Forget life’s 3 certainties, death, taxes and a dry track in Adelaide, because just when the racing spotlight is finally on SA, it is bucketing down. Set to be a bog at Sandown too.

Sportsbet are running a money back promo for your horse coming 2nd or 3rd first 6 races in Melbourne/Sydney/Adelaide. Good week to take advantage of it with some of the following….

MORPHETTVILLE

R1 Zoushine($4.50)

R4 Sopressa($3.50)

R5 Seabrook($4.40)

R6 Garner($2.80) looks the goods but I’ve seen worse bolters than Hankstar($91)

R7 OAKS – Field job but small each way Silent Sovereign($9.50)

R8 Madam Rouge($27), Savatiano($10) but not too heavy suits both

R9 Bold Star($8) regularly looks after my money wisely

SANDOWN

R1 Cornucopia($8.50)

R2 Midas Prince($8)

R4 Atlantica($9.50)

R6 Starcaster($4.80) but including Carzoff($51) in quaddie

R8 Mystery Love($3.80) outstanding first up, More Than Exceed($16) ready to win

QUADDIE – 1,8,11,14//1,5,8,12//1,5,6,14//1,2,7,13,14

KENSINGTON

R3 Jailbreak($4.20)

R4 L’Cosmo($4.40)

R8 Cutadeel($27) if soft

DOOMBEN

R7 Go Deep($13) weights don’t suit but ready to win

And finally, two of the countries great racing carnivals, The Bool and The Alice,  go ahead over the next week, in somewhat emasculated form. Neither will be the same without crowds and beer, but hell they’re going ahead and how good is that!

 

 

 

 

 

What do you think?